Tag Archives: Miami Real Estate forecast 2012

Heard from our Miami Sellers ($3.5 million to $12 million)…

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For the past 3 months, we’ve heard the following common concern from our Sellers of luxury Miami properties…

These are Miami Sellers whose properties are valued at $3.5 million up to $12 million.  These Miami Sellers would like to sell but are not compelled to sell.  Their concern is possible capital gains increases.  At the current capital gains rate of 15%, they are eager to sell.  However, they feel that their Miami home sale must be consummated by Dec. 31st, 2012 to minimize the capital gains.  Being that this is unlikely with 30 days left in the year, they plan to take their properties off the market and wait for their Miami homes to appreciate (based on the current Miami market trends and today’s record low interest rates).

 

ShowcaseMiami Realty specializes in assisting homeowners to Sell their Miami home.

(Highest price in the Shortest period of time)

Jason Smith

Broker

Miami Realtor

Miami Listing Agent

ShowcaseMiami Realty

www.ShowcaseMiami.com

786-326-8115

 

Heard from our Buyers…”I hear the Shadow Inventory is about to hit the market in Miami”

Should Miami Real Estate Buyers be concerned about Shadow Inventory?

Yesterday’s Open Houses…

At the two Miami Open Houses we held yesterday, we experienced a large amount of Buyer traffic (many of whom came with their realtors).  This indicates that those buyers are ready to make an offer once they see a property that suits their needs.  One of our listings priced at $495,000 had 13 groups of people come by.  The other listing priced at $725,000 had 10 groups of people.

 

Concerns from a Couple relocating from Boston…

One couple was just relocating back to Miami from Boston.  They indicated they were ready to buy.  However, their concern is that the Miami bank-owned shadow inventory they’ve heard about will be introduced to the Miami market creating more supply and lowering prices.

 

Jason’s Observation…

We’ve been hearing this for 4 years.  The banks have been cautious not to flood the market with all of their inventory at once.  If they do, market prices are suppressed and the value of their bank owned assets plummets.  This points to continued restraint from banks moving forward as Miami prices continue to appreciate.

 

 

Miami MLS Data Chart (past 5 years)…

 

Additional Observations…

During the last 4 years, the Miami MLS has gone from…

41,794 Miami listings back in July 2008 (28.7  months supply of inventory) to…

11,313 Miami listings today  (3.1  months supply of inventory)

3.1 months of inventory indicates a rapidly appreciating Seller’s market (meaning that if no other listings were to be introduced to the market for sale, the existing supply of homes would be sold within 3.1 months)

A balanced market (neither Buyer’s nor Seller’s market) is 6 months of supply.

 

Opinion…

Quite frankly…shadow inventory would be a good thing for the Miami market right now.  There is very litte inventory for buyers looking to take advantage of today’s historically low interest rates.

 

What this data means for Sellers…

If you have been waiting for the market to improve before listing your home, this is the time to get your home on the market.

What this data means for Buyers…

Even if bank-owned shadow inventory continues to be introduced to the Miami market slowly over the coming years (as it has been for 4 years), Buyers are better off seizing opportunities at today’s record low interest rates (and still low prices) than waiting to see what happens.

 

ShowcaseMiami Realty specializes in assisting homeowners to Sell their Miami home.

(Highest price in the Shortest period of time)

To discuss a strategy for your home, call…

Jason Smith

Broker (Seller Specialist)

ShowcaseMiami Realty

www.ShowcaseMiami.com

786-326-8115

 

 

 

4 Observations on the Changing Miami Condo Market…

The Condo Facts:

 

There is a great deal of mis-information out there regarding the Miami real estate market.  One of the areas where this mis-information exists concerns the % of the market that is REO/Bank Owned, Short Sale or Regular Sale.

Below, you will see data straight from the Miami MLS (Condo & Townhouse only)…

Available Listings in Dade County on Miami MLS:

Total…6249

Regular Listings (non-distressed)…5257 (84%)

Short Sale (pre-foreclosure)…710 (11%)

REO (bank owned foreclosures)…282 (5%)

Closed Sales in Dade County (past 90 days)

Total…575

Regular Listings (non-distressed)…395 (69%)

Short Sale (pre-foreclosure)… 29 (5%)

REO (bank owned foreclosures)…151 (26%)

Observations…

    • Surprisingly, only 11% of the available condo listings today are short sales (aka pre-foreclosure)
    • 2 years ago, 35% of the available condo listings were short sales.
    • Today, 26% of closed sales are REO/Foreclosure
  • 2 years ago, 50% of all closed sale were REO/Foreclosure
****The Miami MLS data above continues to indicate a recovering Miami real estate market****

 

ShowcaseMiami Realty specializes in assisting homeowners to Sell their Miami home.

(Highest price in the Shortest period of time)

To discuss a strategy for your home, call…

Jason Smith

Broker (Seller Specialist)

ShowcaseMiami Realty

www.ShowcaseMiami.com

786-326-8115

What percentage of Miami Listings are REO/Foreclosure/Bank Owned and Short Sales, etc?

The Facts:

 

There is a great deal of mis-information out there regarding the Miami real estate market.  One of the areas where this mis-information exists concerns the % of the market that is REO/Bank Owned, Short Sale or Regular Sale.

Below, you will see data straight from the Miami MLS (Single Family only)…

 

Available Listings in Dade County on Miami MLS:

Total…4,096

Regular Listings (non-distressed)…2,926 (71%)

Short Sale (pre-foreclosure)…893 (22%)

REO (bank owned foreclosures)…277 (7%) 

Closed Sales in Dade County (past 90 days)

Total…343

Regular Listings (non-distressed)…199 (58%)

Short Sale (pre-foreclosure)…23 (7%)

REO (bank owned foreclosures)…121 (35%)

Noteworthy changes to the Miami real estate data over the past 2 years:

1) 2 years ago, short sales accounted for 35% of the available Miami listing inventory.

Today, short sales account for 22% of the available Miami listing inventory.

2)  Today, 35% of all Miami sales on MLS are REO (bank owned foreclosures).

2 years ago, REO’s accounted for 50% of all sales on the Miami MLS.

—————————————————————–

Miami MLS data indicates that the following figures have not changed over the past 2 years:

1) The % of Miami closings that are short sales remains at 6-7%.

2)  The % of Miami listings that are REO’s has not changed significantly.

(Today, 7% of all listings on the Miami MLS are REO.

2 years ago, 10% of all listings on the Miami MLS were REO.

****These Miami MLS data above continues to indicate a recovering Miami real estate market****

ShowcaseMiami Realty specializes in assisting homeowners to Sell their Miami home.

(Highest price in the Shortest period of time)

To discuss a strategy for your home, call…

Jason Smith

Broker (Seller Specialist)

ShowcaseMiami Realty

www.ShowcaseMiami.com

786-326-8115

Latest data on Miami “Shadow Inventory”

It is the #1 factor that will affect the Miami real estate market in 2012.

What is “Shadow Inventory”?

Shadow Inventory is the inventory of foreclosed (or soon to be foreclosed upon) homes held by lenders that has not yet hit the MLS to be sold.

Reason for Shadow Inventory:

The “Robo-Signing” scandal of 2010 and 2011 prevented the banks from processing their foreclosures and subsequently re-introducing them to the market as REO (Real Estate Owned or Foreclosure) listings.  Banks were forced to fix their procedures and several foreclosure mill law firms that represented the banks went out of business.

Forecast for 2012:

Now that the banks have addressed the “Robo-Signing” issues, the expectation is that the pent up supply of foreclosed homes will come to the market in 2012.   The expectation is that this will cause downward pricing pressure on Miami real estate (as well as other markets).

The question is how much of an impact will this introduction of the Shadow Inventory actually have on values in Miami for 2012 and 2013.  According to Miami MLS statistics,  Miami’s real estate market is on a major rebound.  Miami Dade’s supply of housing is 40% less today than it was 14 months ago (14,630 listings in November 2011 vs 24,368 listings in Sept 2010).  I have yet to hear of another market in the U.S. or abroad where housing supply has come down so dramatically!

Michael Lux of Alterra Mortgage sent the data below from CoreLogic:

“Residential shadow inventory is on the decline, falling to 1.6 million units and representing a supply of five months, a new report from CoreLogic shows.

One year ago, nationwide shadow inventory stood at 1.9 million units, marking a six-month supply. Shadow inventory is 22 percent lower than the peak reached in January 2010 of 2 million units — or 8.4 months of supply.

CoreLogic calculates shadow inventory by taking into account the number of distressed properties not yet listed on the multiple listing services that are more than 90 days delinquent, in foreclosure, and real estate owned by lenders.

Jason’s Opinion:

Sellers will benefit from selling in the first half of 2012 and purchasing or moving up in the second half of 2012 when Shadow Inventory makes its way to the Miami MLS (combined with the fact that the 2nd half of the year is low season for home purchases).  Regardless, it appears that the Shadow Inventory will have less impact than originally thought.  Buyers should capitalize on today’s record low interest rates in the 4% range.  Call Michael Lux at Alterra Mortgage at 954-612-2690 to lock in these rates for your next purchase.

Are you selling?  If so, contact Jason Smith for a no-obligation consultation…

 

ShowcaseMiami Realty specializes in assisting homeowners to Sell their Miami home.

(Highest price in the Shortest period of time)

To discuss a strategy for your home, call…

Jason Smith

Broker (Seller Specialist)

ShowcaseMiami Realty

www.ShowcaseMiami.com

786-326-8115